Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 2.784438 3.266460 3.801122 4.437320 5.172871 5.995719 6.985170
2025-10-26 1.964679 2.586799 3.353220 4.363090 5.654662 7.246755 9.353356
2025-11-02 1.428634 2.075055 2.945200 4.193689 5.929177 8.244785 11.554952
2025-11-09 1.061873 1.680409 2.579548 3.967671 6.039085 8.993761 13.499581
2025-11-16 0.843362 1.439297 2.365901 3.890409 6.308655 9.960575 15.843788
2025-11-23 0.691073 1.262799 2.207282 3.852148 6.606631 10.980730 18.374252
2025-11-30 0.611383 1.187268 2.191096 4.029124 7.256552 12.610644 22.044811
2025-12-07 0.523296 1.077164 2.093299 4.044324 7.626677 13.817927 25.158421
2025-12-14 0.448110 0.974968 1.989551 4.026714 7.927106 14.930208 28.227672
2025-12-21 0.389404 0.892922 1.907928 4.033352 8.264928 16.136925 31.590390
2025-12-28 0.372197 0.893571 1.987278 4.362432 9.253415 18.633589 37.580305
2026-01-04 0.336852 0.847413 1.962579 4.475038 9.827194 20.409789 42.402182
2026-01-11 0.305377 0.805501 1.943340 4.603424 10.465667 22.414758 47.959057
2026-01-18 0.269509 0.746047 1.876037 4.618331 10.871647 24.012242 52.908222
2026-01-25 0.228838 0.665749 1.746702 4.472006 10.906069 24.850125 56.399259
2026-02-01 0.190189 0.581880 1.593346 4.243048 10.719457 25.193044 58.879405
2026-02-08 0.165069 0.529320 1.508106 4.164721 10.868923 26.279872 63.087777
2026-02-15 0.145270 0.487448 1.442793 4.125352 11.104627 27.583504 67.918919
2026-02-22 0.137001 0.478389 1.463984 4.314650 11.930346 30.333798 76.343695
2026-03-01 0.123284 0.449067 1.423484 4.331059 12.317644 32.091188 82.630177
2026-03-08 0.110092 0.418313 1.373277 4.312345 12.610339 33.652002 88.612622
2026-03-15 0.099249 0.392909 1.334325 4.319452 12.972976 35.424555 95.297321
2026-03-22 0.098658 0.403617 1.408257 4.670435 14.327350 39.840556 109.001993